^{A market for who Donald Trump might pardon has opened on the prediction market platform Kalshi (Image: Alamy)}

Regulated prediction market Kalshi has opened several markets on who President-elect Donald Trump might pardon during his first days in the White House, and users are particularly high on two possibilities.

The market, which predicts who Trump will pardon during his first 100 days in office, currently offers 12 different options for potential individuals – or groups – that the former president might target.

Jan. 6 Rioters Are Top Picks for Early Pardons

Some are relatively unlikely to happen, and the markets reflect this. Contracts on a pardon for Sean “Diddy” Combs – currently facing a slew of sexual crimes dating back to at least 2008 – can be purchased for as little as $0.05, with each paying $1 if Diddy were to receive a pardon during the specified period. Sam Bankman-Fried ($0.06), Young Thug ($0.07), New York City Mayor Eric Adams ($0.09), and “Tiger King” Joe Exotic ($0.11) are also longshots. 

However, there are a couple options where the market sees a high likelihood of an early pardon. Leading the way is the group “any person convicted of a crime related to entering the Capitol on January 6^th, 2021.” Yes shares are trading at $0.89, and even after accounting for the spread between Yes and No contracts, the market is implying an 85 percent chance of such a pardon in Trump’s first 100 days. 

Trump spoke regularly on the campaign trail about how he would pardon some of the January 6 rioters. While he couched his words somewhat by saying he might not pardon a few of the most violent offenders, he has called the rioters on the whole “patriots” who are being treated as “hostages” in jail. 

That makes it sound likely that Trump would issue – at the very least – a few symbolic pardons to some of the 1,500 people charged related to the Capitol attack. That might be more politically palatable than a blanket pardon – something that has recently been criticized even by at least one judge appointed by Trump himself.

“Blanket pardons for all January 6 defendants or anything close would be beyond frustrating and disappointing, but that’s not my call,” US District Judge Carl Nichols said during a hearing for one Capitol riot defendant on Tuesday. “And the possibility of some pardons, at least, is a very real thing.”

Trump Promised ‘Day One’ Pardon for Silk Road Founder

The other favorite to earn a pardon is Ross Ulbricht, with Yes shares trading at $0.76. Ulbricht founded the Silk Road online marketplace, which became well known as a market for illegal goods. 

While Ulbricht has expressed guilt and remorse for his actions, there has been heavy criticism of his sentence of two life terms plus 40 additional years, all without parole – especially considering he is a first-time offender who committed non-violent crimes. Trump promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence on day one during his presidential campaign. 

How many of these pardons Trump will ultimately follow through with is impossible to know. In his first term in office, Trump issued 143 pardons, but just one came during his first year in office, with none in his first 100 days. Like most presidents, he backloaded most of his pardons, issuing 116 in January 2021 – his final month in office.

Kalshi operates as a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States. That status came after a legal battle during which the CFTC attempted to halt trading on election betting, one that Kalshi ultimately won in early October. 

Other futures markets regulated by the CFTC have also jumped on board to offer election- and politics-based markets. That stands in contrast to unregulated crypto prediction site Polymarket, which saw CEO Shayne Coplan’s apartment raided by agents from the FBI last Wednesday.