You can follow the big boards at Circa remotely for their Survivor and Millions contest, but only if you sign up in person in Nevada. (Image: John Locher/Associated Press)

With the NFL season about to kick off, contest signup season obviously ends imminently. For Circa Survivor and Circa Millions, players must enter by 2 pm PT on Saturday, Sept. 7.

As I noted recently, both contests have guaranteed payouts and no rake, so each had a possibility of an overlay. Well, congrats to Circa, because one of the contests, Survivor, blew through the guarantee with over 5 days to spare. 

As per their press release, last year’s record-setting Circa Survivor contest guaranteed $8 million. And with 9,267 entries, the prize pool ended up being a then-record $9.3 million. 

“[Casino owner] Derek Stevens and Circa Sports raised the stakes this year guaranteeing $10 million,” the press release stated. “Now that the guarantee has been surpassed, every entry from here will increase the total prize pool and the eventual record-setting total prize will be known after the 2 pm deadline on Saturday, Sept. 7.”

Growing Numbers Game

Where will Survivor land? It looks like it could get close to 12,000 entrants which represents just massive growth for the contest. The mere fact that we will have two NFL games in the books could in and of itself at some late Survivor sales. More on that below. 

As for Millions, well, Circa still had some work to do as of Sept. 2. Millions had 4,210 signups, according to Circa Director of Operations Jeffrey Benson:

Now again, players still have time to sign up! And they will, if for no other reason than that potential overlay. As Benson correctly points out, contestants get a positive expected value just by playing as Circa will pay out at least $6 million. 

By late Thursday night, the Millions contest was still short of the guarantee, but with more than 1,000 signups the previous day, Circa was quickly closing in on their target number. 

So where will this end? That depends on who you ask. Benson guesses he beats last year’s number, but falls short of the guarantee. “I think we’ll land somewhere between 5,400-5,600 in the Millions.”

Tom Carroll, who runs Vegas Football Proxy Services, guesses a bit higher. 

“I think it’ll be close. It might fall just a little short,” Carroll tells akfxoqsd.shop. “We’re tracking it as about 10% ahead of last year and that would put them right about at the number – just a bit under 5,879 for the Million.”

For anyone looking to sign up, act fast! And get to Nevada. Even when using a proxy – a service that allows you to make your picks each week from anywhere – you have to be in the state to enter the contests in person at one of the Circa-owned sportsbooks. 

So if like most, you need to use a proxy, have no fear. They are ubiquitous at the Circa book ahead of the contests and incentivized to be incredibly reliable during the season. 

Proxy Services Explained

How does it all work? “For the Millions, every week we email the contest lines to our clients and with that email there is a link to a google form that they use to submit their pick to us,” Carroll explains. “They receive a confirmation that their picks were received and then after we have submitted their picks we email a confirmation to let them know that their picks have been entered at the Circa. We use the same process for both the Millions and the Survivor contests.”

The season itself starts before the contest sign up period ends. In fact we will have two games in the books this year as Ravens-Chiefs kicks off the 2024 slate on Thursday night and then the Packers and Eagles play in Brazil on Friday. 

How does this impact the Circa contests? Well, in Survivor, it could result in some extra late sales thanks to a unique twist in their contest. The four NFL games on Thanksgiving and Black Friday count as their own week for Circa Survivor purposes. So do the three games on Christmas and Dec. 26. 

The Chiefs, obviously a prime team to use in Survivor, play in both the Thanksgiving and Christmas windows, as well as the Thursday season opener. Contestants can only use a team once and will need to save at least one team for both Thanksgiving and Christmas, and the Chiefs will be high on that list and likely not used much at all on Thursday. But the Ravens oddly might, even as a small underdog in Kansas City. 

Big players can enter Survivor up to 10 times and some may use the Ravens Thursday and then “reload” with a new entry by Saturday if Baltimore loses. It is of course not at all a “free” look as the $1000 Survivor ticket with the Ravens goes down, but for players mapping out a portfolio of multiple entries, it likely has a place in an overall contest strategy and could bump Survivor sales incrementally higher. 

If any significant quantity of players loses on their Thursday or Friday picks, Survivor will now have an overlay thanks to those lost entries. So from the perspective of a Saturday signup, there might be some EV there too.